Black Friday is known for its retail shopping frenzy, but it’s also been an interesting date for the cryptocurrency market. Since the inception of Bitcoin as a major asset, Black Friday has often been a notable event for the crypto space, sometimes coinciding with significant market movements. In this post, we’ll explore how previous bull runs have performed around Black Friday, looking at patterns and potential takeaways for the future. We will examine the 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2024 bull runs to see how crypto assets have responded during this time of year and what it might mean for market participants today.
The 2013 Bull Run: Bitcoin’s First Major Peak
The 2013 bull run was the first time Bitcoin received mainstream attention as a digital asset capable of challenging traditional finance. In the lead-up to Black Friday 2013, Bitcoin’s price experienced a dramatic increase, moving from around $200 in early November to over $1,000 by the end of the month. This represented a five-fold increase in value within just a few weeks, fueled by growing awareness and speculation.
On Black Friday 2013, Bitcoin was riding high on enthusiasm, with its price holding steady above $1,000. The hype was largely driven by positive media coverage and increased adoption, as more merchants began accepting Bitcoin as a payment method, capitalizing on the shopping season. The year ended with Bitcoin cementing its place in the public consciousness, but it also marked the beginning of a correction that would last throughout much of 2014.
Key Takeaway: The 2013 bull run was characterized by extreme volatility, rapid growth, and the first major mainstream adoption phase. Black Friday marked a high point in the bull market, but the subsequent correction showed the risks of an overheated rally.
The 2017 Bull Run: The ICO Frenzy and Institutional Curiosity
The 2017 bull run is often remembered for the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) craze, with many new projects raising funds through ICOs and fueling speculative buying. Bitcoin started November 2017 trading at around $7,000 and surged to over $10,000 by the end of the month. By the time Black Friday came around, the entire market was buzzing with euphoria, as altcoins were also experiencing major gains.
Bitcoin’s price hovered near $8,000 on Black Friday 2017, as retail investors jumped in, hoping to capitalize on the growing trend. The broader crypto market followed, with many altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), gaining significant traction. This period also saw an influx of retail investors, drawn in by stories of early adopters making incredible returns.
The 2017 Black Friday marked an important moment where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were recognized as significant investment opportunities. However, the rapid price appreciation led to heightened regulatory scrutiny and a sharp decline in early 2018, with many ICOs turning out to be unsustainable.
Key Takeaway: Black Friday 2017 reflected the intense speculative interest in cryptocurrencies and the mainstream curiosity about digital assets. The subsequent correction highlighted the importance of understanding underlying fundamentals rather than purely speculative investments.
The 2020 Bull Run: The Institutional Era
The 2020 bull run was significantly different from previous cycles. By this time, Bitcoin had matured as an asset, gaining the interest of institutional investors and becoming a serious contender for a store of value. The COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in boosting Bitcoin’s appeal, as central banks engaged in aggressive monetary stimulus, leading many to view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
In the lead-up to Black Friday 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged from around $13,000 at the beginning of November to over $18,000 by the end of the month. Institutional players such as Grayscale, MicroStrategy, and PayPal drove the demand, and Black Friday itself became an opportunity for many to buy the dip, with Bitcoin briefly pulling back before continuing its rally.
Unlike in previous years, the 2020 bull run was more methodical, with stronger hands entering the market and more structured buying. By the end of the year, Bitcoin had breached its previous all-time high and entered new territory above $20,000.
Key Takeaway: The 2020 Black Friday bull run was fueled by institutional adoption and a broader recognition of Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. This period showed a shift from retail-driven hype to a more mature market with institutional backing.
The 2024 Bull Run: The Road to $100K?
As of November 2024, Bitcoin is once again in a strong bull run, with its price reaching $98,000 in the days leading up to Black Friday. This year, the excitement around cryptocurrencies is being driven by a combination of factors, including Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and increasing regulatory clarity in major markets like the United States and Europe.
Black Friday 2024 has been marked by optimism, with many investors expecting Bitcoin to breach the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. The broader market, including altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Polygon (MATIC), has also experienced substantial gains, reflecting a broader alt season that seems to be underway. Unlike previous cycles, the narrative has focused heavily on utility and regulatory acceptance, making this bull run appear more sustainable.
The influence of institutional players and the emergence of crypto ETFs have brought additional liquidity to the market, making this cycle less reliant on retail euphoria alone. While past Black Fridays have seen price corrections due to profit-taking, the 2024 run has so far demonstrated resilience, with fewer signs of panic selling and a more confident market.
Key Takeaway: The 2024 Black Friday bull run seems to be fueled by a mix of institutional interest, regulatory clarity, and optimism for future growth. Unlike previous cycles, this rally appears to be built on stronger fundamentals, increasing the likelihood of sustained gains.
Patterns and Insights from Black Friday Bull Runs
Looking back at the Black Friday bull runs since 2013, several patterns emerge. The 2013 and 2017 bull runs were largely driven by speculative retail interest, resulting in dramatic price increases followed by painful corrections. In contrast, the 2020 and 2024 bull runs have shown a maturation of the market, driven by institutional adoption, regulatory acceptance, and wider recognition of cryptocurrencies as legitimate financial assets.
The 2024 Black Friday bull run, in particular, stands out as a pivotal moment, with Bitcoin closing in on the $100,000 milestone and altcoins showing strength across the board. This reflects a broader shift toward sustainable growth, driven by both retail and institutional participation.
While past cycles have shown that dramatic rises are often followed by corrections, the current bull run appears to have a stronger foundation. For investors, understanding the context of previous Black Friday performances can provide insight into the potential risks and rewards of participating in the current market.
As we move forward, the lessons from past bull runs will remain crucial for navigating the volatility that has always characterized the crypto space. Whether history repeats itself or a new pattern emerges, the only certainty in the crypto market is change.
